In his paper presented yesterday at the International Conference on Ammonia Refrigeration Technology, Co-chair UNEP Technology and Economic Assessment Panel, Lambert Kuijpers discusses approaches to achieving a low climate impact from the RAC sector in the coming decade. Regulating HFCs under the Montreal or Kyoto Protocol are among others discussed, while the author anticipates several policy developments that would support the application of natural refrigerants including ammonia to take place within 2009.

“A number of developments will be set in motion in 2009, which will give new impetus to the application of low GWP refrigerants, where natural refrigerants including ammonia will have to play a role”, explains Lambert Kuijpers, Co-chair Co-chair Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) in his paper “2010-2020: A New Decade of Changes in Refrigeration and A/C – Various Approaches to Achieving a Low Climate Impact” presented yesterday at the 3rd edition International Conference on Ammonia Refrigeration Technology in the Republic of Macedonia.

HCFC and CFC emissions

Regarding HCFCs, while a phase out in developed countries on the on hand, is underway, agreed management plans whereby at least 35% reduction from a 2009-2010 baseline will mandate their phase out in developing countries as well. The author emphasises how for the first time ever, policy has directed HCFCs substitution plans to be subject to environmental considerations including climate through substitution to low GWP alternatives. Moreover, Kuijpers explains how the focus in the next decade in developing countries will shift from phasing out CFC consumption to avoiding the emissions of CFCs and halons from existing banks.

Regulating HFC emissions

Regarding HFCs, Kuijpers notes that the reduction in their consumption as well as their emissions will be discussed more generally under both the Montreal and the Kyoto Protoco. Nonetheless, it might be expected that HFCs and PFCs will be addressed slightly differently than to date, be it in 2009 or at a later date.

Kuijpers notes that the climate aspects in the Montreal Protocol framework has mainly shifted to the climate change impact of HFC use and emissions and that while in North America the HFCs were long considered the replacements of choice for the next decade and thereafter, a change occurred in 2007-2008. At that time, the Montreal Protocol was simultaneously considered as an indirect climate protocol by some in the US and in this way was considered an instrument to stimulate climate discussions in a country that did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
Referring to the example of the EU position for the next UNFCCC negotiations in Copenhagen this December, which recognises that the phase-out of HCFCs under the Montreal Protocol may lead to rapid HFC emissions and calls for reducing HFC emissions under the follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol, the author notes that it remains questionable whether all governments would consider controls under separate agreements as feasible. Nonetheless, the author expects that the Parties in the UNFCCC/ Kyoto Protocol framework will be reluctant to amend the basket of regulated gas to include HFCs and PFCs, especially when current efforts are more focused on expanding it to include the emissions of other industrial gases such as nitrogen trifluoride (GWP 17,200), as well as ethers and other chemicals not controlled under the Montreal Protocol.

In the US, Kuijpers notes a clear signal for new climate policy approaches under the new presidency. One considered approach has been considered to bring HFC consumption and production controls under the Montreal Protocol while leaving the emissions control under the Kyoto Protocol, i.e., a sort of double regulation.

Conclusions

Kuijpers concludes that lots of things are expected to occur in the next decade via the use of approaches aiming at lowering the climate impact of refrigeration and AC, with 2009 a year where a lot of progress in the international understanding of the issues and in the approaches how to deal with them will be made, which may imply substantial changes.